Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 128,215
2 South Dakota 122,437
3 Rhode Island 109,458
4 Utah 108,300
5 Tennessee 104,762
6 Arizona 104,751
7 Wisconsin 101,833
8 Iowa 101,483
9 Nebraska 98,852
10 Oklahoma 98,779
11 Arkansas 98,248
12 Kansas 95,968
13 Alabama 93,991
14 Indiana 93,802
15 Mississippi 92,638
16 Idaho 91,373
17 Nevada 90,658
18 Wyoming 89,945
19 Illinois 89,269
20 Montana 88,087
21 South Carolina 86,607
22 Louisiana 86,386
23 California 84,561
24 Georgia 83,679
25 Texas 83,269
26 New Mexico 83,244
27 Kentucky 82,508
28 Minnesota 82,025
29 Missouri 80,631
30 Delaware 80,609
31 Florida 80,413
32 New Jersey 78,848
33 Ohio 76,916
34 Massachusetts 76,376
35 Alaska 73,940
36 New York 73,461
37 North Carolina 72,783
38 Connecticut 71,229
39 Colorado 69,352
40 West Virginia 67,753
41 Pennsylvania 66,545
42 Michigan 61,202
43 Virginia 59,473
44 Maryland 58,853
45 District of Columbia 52,437
46 New Hampshire 48,582
47 Washington 41,721
48 Puerto Rico 40,032
49 Oregon 33,992
50 Maine 29,417
51 Vermont 19,364
52 Hawaii 18,271

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Texas 752
2 South Carolina 665
3 New York 566
4 Oklahoma 560
5 Arizona 534
6 Delaware 534
7 New Jersey 490
8 Kentucky 484
9 Rhode Island 477
10 Massachusetts 443
11 Florida 442
12 North Carolina 440
13 Arkansas 434
14 California 414
15 Georgia 406
16 Virginia 379
17 Connecticut 367
18 West Virginia 364
19 Alabama 358
20 Mississippi 340
21 Utah 337
22 Tennessee 327
23 Pennsylvania 313
24 Louisiana 309
25 New Hampshire 299
26 Ohio 299
27 Nevada 294
28 Indiana 285
29 District of Columbia 280
30 New Mexico 278
31 Maryland 276
32 Iowa 263
33 Montana 256
34 Nebraska 240
35 Vermont 227
36 Kansas 224
37 Illinois 212
38 Wyoming 211
39 Colorado 209
40 Wisconsin 202
41 Maine 181
42 Missouri 176
43 Alaska 175
44 Minnesota 164
45 Washington 160
46 Idaho 150
47 South Dakota 135
48 Michigan 134
49 Puerto Rico 132
50 Oregon 129
51 North Dakota 98
52 Hawaii 63

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,422
2 New York 2,228
3 Massachusetts 2,119
4 Rhode Island 2,051
5 Mississippi 2,034
6 South Dakota 2,009
7 Connecticut 1,996
8 Louisiana 1,917
9 North Dakota 1,898
10 Arizona 1,803
11 Pennsylvania 1,698
12 Illinois 1,678
13 Arkansas 1,622
14 New Mexico 1,572
15 Alabama 1,567
16 Iowa 1,554
17 Michigan 1,554
18 Indiana 1,483
19 South Carolina 1,414
20 Tennessee 1,414
21 Nevada 1,389
22 Kansas 1,307
23 Georgia 1,301
24 District of Columbia 1,297
25 Texas 1,290
26 Florida 1,242
27 Maryland 1,183
28 Missouri 1,170
29 Montana 1,155
30 West Virginia 1,131
31 Delaware 1,130
32 Minnesota 1,111
33 Wisconsin 1,105
34 California 1,046
35 Nebraska 1,042
36 Wyoming 1,029
37 Colorado 996
38 Idaho 971
39 Ohio 960
40 Oklahoma 900
41 North Carolina 895
42 Kentucky 894
43 New Hampshire 778
44 Virginia 758
45 Washington 578
46 Puerto Rico 574
47 Utah 520
48 Oregon 469
49 Maine 442
50 Alaska 345
51 Hawaii 287
52 Vermont 280

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Iowa 34
2 South Carolina 22
3 Tennessee 13
4 California 9
5 New York 9
6 Alabama 8
7 Georgia 8
8 Mississippi 8
9 Arkansas 7
10 Delaware 7
11 Louisiana 7
12 Massachusetts 7
13 New Mexico 7
14 Oklahoma 7
15 Connecticut 6
16 Florida 6
17 Kentucky 6
18 Maine 6
19 Nevada 6
20 Texas 6
21 New Hampshire 5
22 North Carolina 5
23 Pennsylvania 5
24 Rhode Island 5
25 District of Columbia 4
26 Maryland 4
27 Michigan 4
28 New Jersey 4
29 Ohio 4
30 West Virginia 4
31 Arizona 3
32 Illinois 3
33 Indiana 3
34 Kansas 3
35 South Dakota 3
36 Virginia 3
37 Colorado 2
38 Minnesota 2
39 Montana 2
40 Puerto Rico 2
41 Wisconsin 2
42 Idaho 1
43 Missouri 1
44 Nebraska 1
45 North Dakota 1
46 Oregon 1
47 Utah 1
48 Vermont 1
49 Washington 1
50 Alaska 0
51 Hawaii 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 299,621 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 245,530 2 99
Dewey South Dakota 235,743 3 99
Lake Tennessee 235,319 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 234,490 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 122,320 229 92
Richland South Carolina 86,625 1349 57
York South Carolina 79,586 1709 45
Orange California 77,789 1800 42
Pierce Washington 39,026 2896 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 3 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,452 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,069 1896 39
Richland South Carolina 1,049 1935 38
Orange California 979 2029 35
York South Carolina 915 2117 32
Pierce Washington 518 2653 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons